The automotive aftermarket prepares for the upcoming review of the USMCA.
Cross-border freight uncertainty is already affecting volumes, costs and risks as the automotive aftermarket prepares for potential disruption tied to the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
With the July 1 review approaching, manufacturers, suppliers and distributors are monitoring potential shifts in cross-border freight flows, pricing and compliance requirements. Early signs of disruption are already emerging in active freight lanes, where volume swings, pricing pressure and operational uncertainty are making it more difficult to plan inventory movement and maintain consistent supply.
Karl Fillhouer, vice president of sales and operations at Circle Logistics, said prolonged trade uncertainty ultimately moves downstream through the supply chain. As negotiations stall or shift, that instability affects manufacturers and shippers before reaching the end customer.
In that environment, he pointed to the American consumer as the “ultimate loser,” as higher costs and inefficiencies tied to uncertainty begin to influence both price and availability of goods, particularly in material-sensitive industries such as automotive and appliances.
For the aftermarket, those same conditions translate into immediate challenges across sourcing, replenishment and distribution. Policy uncertainty can tighten capacity, disrupt just-in-time inventory strategies and increase the cost and complexity of cross-border compliance. At the same time, underlying demand remains relatively steady, creating a disconnect between long-term product needs and short-term logistics volatility.
Circle Logistics’ data reflects that tension. Cross-border volumes climbed to 1,175 shipments in February before dropping 42.5% to 676 in March. Fillhouer attributed that shift to shipper hesitation tied to ongoing negotiations. Despite the decline, 2026 year-to-date volumes still slightly outpace 2025 averages, reinforcing that demand remains intact but less predictable.
We spoke with Fillhouer about where the impact is showing up first and what aftermarket companies should watch as the USMCA review approaches.
Where demand softens first
Q: When consumer demand weakens, what’s the first signal companies see in freight activity?
Fillhouer: When the ultimate consumer loses, purchases go down and the economy suffers. With the exception of dedicated fleets, freight volume suffers.
How costs begin to shift
Q: If negotiations stall or rules change, where do cost pressures show up first?
Fillhouer: When talks stall and/or when rules shift, it creates chaos in the market and what we generally see is a downward shift in volume. When freight volumes shift rapidly, up or down, it disrupts the flow of goods and can cause costs to increase from inefficiencies.
Just-in-time still requires flexibility
Q: What challenges are companies facing with just-in-time strategies in cross-border freight?
Fillhouer: I believe most shippers have it down. It’s important to have some redundancies in the solutions large shippers have in place to create greater flexibility when markets shift rapidly.
The risk beyond tariffs
Q: Beyond tariffs, what is the biggest risk right now?
Fillhouer: In my opinion, the biggest risk today comes from fraud and cargo theft. Shippers and carriers, as well as 3PLs and brokers, should have robust systems in place to insure the carriers picking the freight up are the actual carriers assigned to loads.
Advertisement
Preparing for the July deadline
Q: What should companies prioritize ahead of the July review?
Fillhouer: Companies need to be prepared for disruptions in market and the flow of goods, both cross-border and within the U.S.
Post time: Jun-26-2026
